Norway Tippeligaen – Bodo Glimt v Rosenborg Preview (2/7/16)

BODO-RBK

Bodo Glimt preview

The northern outfit started the season well, but a terrible run of results left them third bottom of the table at the start of the summer break. In total, Bodo have lost 8 of their last 10 games and an horrendous spell of six consecutive defeats, the worst losing run of anyone in the Tippeligaen so far this year. Bodo haven’t actually looked like a bad side at times. They retained a similar identity that they had last season, try to soak up pressure and then hit sides on the counter attack. Their problem hasn’t so much been conceding goals, that was pretty much expected. But for a so called ‘attack minded’ team to only score 13 goals in 13 games is a pretty low return. Winger Milan Jevtovic has scored six of those aforementioned strikes and is one of the leading marksman in the league. But it hasn’t been enough, other players haven’t contributed. For this game, no1 keeper Halldorsson is away with Iceland on international duty. I’m not fully sure of their injury situation but it looks like Bodo will have close to a clean bill of health.

Rosenborg preview

The champions look good value to defend their title. Prior to the summer break they were five points clear at the tip of the table, with only Odd and Molde able to make any sort of challenge in the second half of the campaign. It really looks like RBK are in a class of their own once again and have eased their way to 10/13 league wins. The Trondheim outfit are the joint highest scoring team and have the best defence in the Tippeligaen. I personally feel like they’ve yet to even hit top gear. That might take until August and beyond to happen, this month they have crucial Champions League qualifying matches to deal with which they might treat with higher priority. Heading into this match it seems RBK have close to a clean bill of health. Only winger Yann de Lanlay is rated doubtful with injury. All of their dropped points this season have come away from home, so if RBK are vulnerable in any way then it’s definitely on the road.

Conclusion

This isn’t a particularly happy hunting ground for Rosenborg. They’ve only won once at Aspmyra Stadion since 2005. Last season they suffered a shock 1-0 loss here and the season before could only manage a surprising 2-2 draw. This is definitely a match Bodo Glimt raise themselves for and for many fans this is considered one of their big rivalries. The two sides don’t hate each other that much and have historically helped each other out, especially with loanees going to Bodo from RBK. The rivalry is competitive though and we should see a rare full crowd at this stadium leading to a great atmosphere. I think this could be a good time to take on the champions, who perhaps could be a little rusty coming off the summer break. I sense an open match. Bodo can’t really defend but they have the pace to cause RBK problems at the back. Ultimately, the scoring power and extra class of the visitors might be enough to get them over the line but this match will be closer than the odds suggest and I don’t rule out Bodo getting something.

Prediction: 2-2

Betting advice

This will be my first bet in the Tippeligaen since it’s resumption from the summer break. I think over 3 goals is definitely worth backing. Rosenborg might have lacked for goals on the road this season but they will surely get plenty of chances against a potentially porous defence. I also think scoring chances will be at both ends. Bodo have some good pacey options such as Azemi, Olsen & Jevtovic who could all catch out RBK on the break. The worry is of course that Bodo keep missing chances. Those misses are the only reason why they haven’t been involved in more over 2.5 games this season. RBK have had 5/6 unders on the road in 2016 but have mostly faced negative sides more inclined to park the bus. I don’t think Bodo will do that, and even if they did the defence isn’t capable of holding out IMO. So I think anything 1.80+ on an over 3 goal line is an acceptable bet, at worst I see this being a push. Personally, I wouldn’t back RBK -1.25. This handicap feels too big in the first match for over a month against a northern rival who consider this a massive game. Rosenborg are deserving favourites but I’m not totally convinced they’ll win, let alone by a clear margin.

Recommended bet: Over 3 goals @ 1.95 (minimum odds acceptable 1.80)

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