Norway Tippeligaen – Lillestrom v Tromso Preview (1/7/16)

LSK - TIL

Lillestrom preview

Key goalkeeper Arnold Origi is out ‘indefinitely’ with injury and this is a big blow. Origi is one of the best custodians in the league and is usually worth quite a few points for LSK during a season. In the three games he missed so far this season, they conceded eight goals and his presence at the back is massive. Upfront, there’s been a lot of attention on Fred Friday who is the current leading goalscorer in the Tippeligaen. Friday is almost certain to leave the club when the transfer window opens and LSK have already received bids for him. But for now he remains one of their players and should be available here. LSK have been a mediocre side this season although only lost one match at home where they are historically strong.

Tromso preview

It looks like the TIL squad will be in good condition ahead of this match. Of potential starters, only midfielder Jonas Johansen looks like potentially missing out. All of their key players should be fully available. Tromso have had a very inconsistent season and seem to have one good performance followed by a bad one. For a team renowned for such strong home dominance, it’s a surprise they’ve already lost three matches at the Alfheim Stadium this season. All of those defeats have come by a 1-2 scoreline and in general the key to doing well against Tromso is to score the first goal. Once ahead, the northerners are very hard to break down and can control proceedings. Away from home, Tromso are usually very negative and defensive right from the start.

Conclusion

This is the first Tippeligaen match for over a month and all of the teams have had a long summer break. For Lillestrom, I sense mood within the camp is a bit negative. They recently lost a friendly match against Stabaek 0-5 and although nothing was at stake it’s still a worrying scoreline. With key goalkeeper Origi injured and star striker Fred Friday on his way out of the club, there are a lot of question marks surrounding them. Nevertheless, LSK are usually pretty good at home and Tromso have a terrible reputation on the road. This is actually one of their better campaigns away from home and last time they were in this region they beat Stabaek 3-0. I can’t make my mind up here so I will predict a draw. Tromso seem a bit harder to beat at the moment and LSK could lack confidence. Something like a 1-1 outcome is maybe possible.

Prediction: 1-1

Betting analysis

I certainly wouldn’t be backing Lillestrom @ around the 1.85 mark. This is too short IMO, especially as we head into this match on the back of a long break. I think you would be rolling the dice a bit and gambling by backing the hosts @ this price. Maybe Tromso +0.75 is worth a look, but history suggests backing TIL away from home is the way to the poorhouse! LSK games are usually good for overs but in Tromso they face one of the biggest natural under teams in the whole league. Statistics might say that 6 out of 13 TIL games have gone over this season, but so many of their games are tight. Tromso will only open up and play more if they are forced into action after falling behind. The over 2.5 price is @ 1.85, fairly generous in the Tippeligaen. But I just think there are too many doubts. This whole round of games is probably best watched, and this fixture in particular is one which doesn’t interest me from a betting point of view, so I’ll leave well alone.

Recommended bet: None

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