Sogndal beat Stabak last week and they are now unbeaten in seven consecutive Tippeligaen games. The margin of victory was only 1-0 last Sunday but in all truth they should’ve won 3 or 4 nil. Ok, that was only facing Stabaek who are woefully out of form, but it was a very encouraging display for the promoted outfit. It looks like they will comfortably finish in mid table this season and the players are enjoying their football. Manager Eirik Bakke has done a good job with this squad, and they’ve been fortunate with injuries and suspensions. Bakke often keeps a very similar XI and all of the players know each other really well. One again he should have near enough a full squad from which to choose from here. Sogndal have only lost one home game all year and have the capabilities to really frustrate Molde with some solid tactics.
It seems to me like Molde are in a bit of a mess. I felt like they’d been having an underachieving campaign anyway in which they dropped silly points, but now a recent player exodus has left them shorthanded until replacements can be found. Key men, Fredrik Gulbrandsen and Mo Elyounoussi have left the club and both were two of the best players in the whole league. I struggle to see how Molde can replace them adequately and their quality has definitely reduced thanks to these departures. Couple that with a lot of recent injuries & suspensions and it feels like the team has no stability right now. The big strength of Molde was creating chances and scoring goals, but they looked completely toothless last week losing against Viking at home 0-1. At the back they make too many defensive errors and there is a continual problem at right back whilst Sewankambo is injured.
Conclusion & betting analysis
The odds look all wrong to me here. I see no reason why Sogndal are a +0.25 underdog. At very worst they should be a favourite on a DNB handicap. This is a team unbeaten in seven games, very settled and confident at the moment. Molde seem the opposite and a right mess. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is being tested to the limit as manager and the deficiencies he showed at Cardiff are starting to show again. Sogndal are a really competitive team, tough to beat. Even Rosenborg couldn’t win her at the Fosshaugane Campus. Molde’s away record this season is pretty average with only wins at Bodo and Stabaek who are really poor teams. Even with the likes of Elyounoussi and Gulbrandsen I think i’d be willing to go against them here. Taking Sogndal +0.25 is a no brainer in my opinion. I personally don’t think they’ll suffer defeat and actually give them a great chance of winning.
Recommended bet: Sogndal +0.25 @ 1.84 (minimum odds acceptable 1.70)