Norway Tippeligaen – Brann v Valerenga Preview (9/7/16)

BRANN -VIF

Brann preview

The Bergan side are highly unusual in Norwegian football because so many of their games finish under 2.5 goals. A whopping 11 out of 14 of their contests have ended under that mark this season, which is a pretty ridiculous statistic for the Tippeligaen. The key to Brann’s success is keeping things tight at the back, especially here at home where clean sheets have been plentiful. Incredibly, all of their last eight games have been won either 1-0 or 2-0 by the the home side. They’ll hope for a similar outcome again here. Brann were without their central defensive pairing last week with Bismar Acosta & Vadim Demidov both missing out. The latter is still most likely injured for this clash. In midfield, regular starter Fredrik Haugen is suspended.

Valerenga preview

Kjetil Rekdal’s men continue to struggle badly this season. ‘Enga remain rooted third bottom of the table and Bodo Glimt’s win on Friday night certainly hasn’t helped matters. A collection of problems both on and off the field has hampered them all year. They resumed after the summer break with a home defeat to Odd (0-1). In that contest VIF didn’t play too badly but lacked the cutting edge in the final third. Matters aren’t helped by the departure of striker Deshorn Brown either this week. Brown had his fair share of critics but he was still the best option Valerenga had upfront. At the back, 40 year old Kjetil Waehler & Enar Jaager are both injured. The visitors are at full strength in midfield and attack, obviously minus the departed Brown.

Conclusion

I don’t see how this can be anything other than a tight low scoring game. Brann matches are renowned for being such low scoring affairs, against many different types of teams. Their strong defensive organisation coupled with a lack of firepower ensures a lot of 1-0 or 2-0 outcomes. Overall, I think Brann will probably find a way to win here. They are actually the better side and Valerenga are so devoid of confidence at the moment. It’s a bit of a boring pick, but 1-0 Brann is definitely the most likely outcome again. A goalless draw certainly can’t be ruled out either. I think Valerenga will be happy to approach this match cautiously as well and they would accept a point. Overall, nobody should expect a match containing many chances or goals. This will probably be a crap and boring affair.

Prediction: 1-0

Betting analysis

For those of you who like to back unders then 1.80 on under 2.5 isn’t a bad price. I personally hate taking under bets though and I don’t really want to get involved here. The main goal line is over/under 2.25, which isn’t seen very often in Norwegian football. This match looks like an obvious under, but what if Valerenga got ahead early or something? Then Brann would actually have to come out and play for once. A more tempting bet for me is Brann -0.25. This is generally priced @ 1.80 and isn’t quite big enough for me to take a nibble. I’d be surprised if they lost here and will probably find a way to eek out a 1-0 win or something. But despite trusting their defence, I don’t trust their attack to score enough. The Bergan outfit have only scored 11 times in 14 games which is pretty pathetic. All things considered I will avoid betting on this affair. It’s the least appealing match to bet on today IMO, even if the final outcome appears to be fairly predictable.

Recommended bet: None

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One thought on “Norway Tippeligaen – Brann v Valerenga Preview (9/7/16)

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