AFK have had a tough couple of fixtures since the summer break and things don’t get any easier with the visit of Rosenborg. AFK lost back to back away games at Godset (2-4) and Odd (1-4) and simply had no answer to the attacking powers of their opponents. Earlier in the season they demonstrated some decent defensive resilience but now it seems they are incapable of holding out strong attacks, at least away from home. For this game, key midfielder Bjorn Helge Riise is suspended. Aalesund are now third bottom of the table and their league campaign has been poor, winning only three times. Losing to Godset and Odd is no disgrace, but it feels like things might get even harder before they improve. AFK have a terrible record against Rosenborg, failing to beat them in any of the last nineteen H2H Tippeligaen fixtures! That last success was over ten years ago way back in 2005. Current form suggests that long wait will continue.
RBK continue their march towards another league title, although still have to be careful of Odd who are only three points behind them. Last week they came from behind to beat Sarpsborg 5-2 in a match which was actually much closer than the scoreline suggested. Key goalkeeper Andre Hansen is ruled out for a couple of months and veteran Pavel Londak is in between the sticks. As predicted, the RBK defence was a bit shakier last week, especially from set pieces. One important fact to mention here is that the Trondheimers played in midweek against Norrkoping in the Champions League qualifiers. The return leg is in Sweden on Wednesday night and RBK will travel there with a 34-1 advantage in their pocket. If the players didn’t have that match in their minds then I’d be surprised, having a good European run would be massive for the club so it has to be classed as a priority. Whether or not any players will be rested/rotated here remains to be seen, but the simple fact is Rosenborg might not be 100% focused on Aalesund.
Conclusion & betting analysis
Despite the big midweek match on the horizon, Rosenborg have named a full strength squad today. Only #1 goalkeeper Andre Hansen is injured. Under normal circumstances, RBK should win this match fairly easily. Aalesund aren’t playing particularly well and don’t seem like the sort of side who will cause the visitors too many problems. However, if RBK have an achilles heel then it’s their away form. They’ve actually drawn 3 of their last 4 on the road and the one victory was an extremely laboured 2-0 success at lowly Start. The likes of Haugesund, Sogndal & Bodo Glimt have all managed to pick up a point against the champions. For Aalesund, this will like their cup final and will give totally 120% effort. If RBK minds are thinking towards the Champions League, then maybe the hosts can take advantage? Usually, I like to back overs in RBK games and the way Aalesund have conceded of late, the over 3 goal line will tempt many people. But for some reason, Rosenborg away games have been ending under this season. Five out of six have ended under 2.5 and the one over finished 1-2. So I would suggest 0-1 or 0-2 are possibly the most likely scores here, with 1-1 having a chance if Aalesund play better. Overall, I don’t think this match is a great betting prospect and I’m happy to leave it alone.
Recommended bet: None